A 1989 study on lotteries by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that “the proportion of adults who participate drops from 49 percent for those with less than a high school education to 30 percent for those with a college degree,” and that “lotteries appeal to a less well-educated clientele than most other forms of gambling,” which actually increase with a high school degree or higher. But even if we assume this is true, it leaves another 56 percent unaccounted for-and more impartial research tells a different story. In their PR materials, lottery industry groups get very defensive about the idea that they might be disproportionately affecting low-income people, calling it a “debunked myth.” Their customers, they insist, come from “society as a whole,” with 44 percent having incomes of $55,000 or more annually. In other words, the poor and the underprivileged. In most cases, “people who don’t know math” doesn’t actually mean “self-conceited fools,” only people who weren’t given an expensive education in probability and statistics. These descriptions may be accurate on their face, but they’re also somewhat lacking in empathy. illustration by Kasia Kozakiewiczįor this reason, lotteries have been called “a tax on people who don’t know math” (Bill Nye the Science Guy) and “a Tax upon unfortunate self-conceited fools” (17th-century economist Sir William Petty). (292,201,338 / 365 = 800,551, to be exact.) For mere mortals, it’s technically possible, in the same way it’s possible that a crate full of money could fall off a truck and land at your feet-but for virtually everyone alive today, it won’t happen. For instance, if an immortal vampire played a random set of Powerball numbers every day, it would take them more than 800,000 years to cash in. Here, colorful and slightly ridiculous examples can help. Told to picture “a million,” most people probably envision something closer to ten thousand a hundred million, or a billion, is completely beyond ordinary experience. These are much worse odds than traditional casino games like roulette (where a straight bet on a single number has just 1 in 37 odds) or even slot machines (where the chance of getting all three jackpot images in a row is estimated at 1 in 262,144 on a typical three-reel machine.) Unfortunately, the human brain is notoriously bad at processing big numbers, so it can be hard to grasp what these figures actually mean. Scratch-off games are harder to quantify, since there are so many different versions, but a typical ticket sold in Pennsylvania in 2021 had just ten $250,000 winners in a print run of “approximately 12,000,000,” making the likelihood of securing the grand prize something like 1 in 1,200,000. For the Mega Millions game, which has a similar format with slightly more options per ball, the odds are even steeper at 1 in 302,575,350. For that $2 billion Powerball, the odds of picking correct numbers for all six “balls” were an eye-watering 1 in 292,201,338. In the first place, it’s important to recognize that lotteries are effectively impossible to win. But are lotteries really the fun, harmless pastimes they’re portrayed to be? Or is something more sinister going on? ![]() It’s in thousands of gas stations, convenience stores, and supermarkets across the country, with millions of players every year. The lottery is a constant background radiation in the public consciousness. ![]() Even on ordinary days, many TV channels embed within the actual news broadcasts daily segments devoted to revealing winning numbers. (In this time, they made no mention of the lethal war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, which reached an important peace deal on November 2.) Local stations joined in the commotion, interviewing ticket purchasers and speculating endlessly about the chances someone from their area might win. From November 2 to November 8, when a winner finally emerged, NBC Nightly News ran a story every night about people flocking to buy lottery tickets, essentially providing a week of free advertising for the game. Late in 2022, the Powerball jackpot reached a historic $2 billion, and the media circus escalated to new heights. Whenever a popular numbers game like Powerball or Mega Millions rolls out an unusually high top prize, it triggers a cycle of breathless coverage, with frequent updates on the nation’s “lottery fever.” These stories are treated as headline news and broadcast alongside stories about war, elections, and natural disasters. The American news media loves a story about the lottery.
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